2026 Refund Watch: How the OBBBA is Actually Impacting Your Wallet

We are now several weeks into the 2026 filing season, and the numbers coming out of the IRS are painting an interesting picture. If you have been following the headlines, you know the average refund check has jumped to $2,476—up from $2,169 at this time last year. That is a solid 14.2% increase, amounting to just over $300 back in your pocket.

While any increase is welcome news, the reality is slightly different from the forecasts. Policymakers and analysts had predicted a surge closer to $1,000 thanks to the legislative overhaul. However, it is important to remember we are still early in the season (it's only March, after all). As more complex returns are processed, these averages often shift. What is clear, though, is that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is beginning to make its mark on tax liability.

The New Tax Breaks Driving Refunds Up

The OBBBA introduced a suite of changes designed to lower taxable income for specific groups. If your refund looks healthier this year, one of these provisions is likely the reason why.

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Specific Deductions to Watch

  • The Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: The federal "time-and-a-half" pay is now getting tax-advantaged treatment. You can deduct up to $12,500 (single) or $25,000 (married filing jointly) of this income.
  • The Tips Tax Deduction: For those in the service industry (covering nearly 70 designated occupations), qualified tips are deductible up to $25,000. Note that married couples must file jointly to leverage this.
  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: In a move to support domestic manufacturing, interest on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased after 2024 is deductible up to $10,000. This applies even if you take the standard deduction.

Keep in mind: These benefits are not unlimited. Phase-outs for the overtime and tips deductions kick in at $150,000 MAGI ($300,000 for couples), vanishing completely at $275,000 ($550,000 for couples). The auto loan benefit phases out even earlier, starting at $100,000 ($200,000 for couples).

Broader Changes Affecting Most Filers

  • Standard Deduction & Senior Bonus: The standard deduction has climbed to $31,500 for married couples and $15,750 for singles. Taxpayers aged 65+ get an additional $6,000 "Senior Bonus," though this extra boost phases out starting at $75,000 ($150,000 for couples).
  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit is now $2,200 per child. Like many benefits, this disappears for higher earners, with full eligibility capping at $400,000 for families and $200,000 for singles/heads of household.
  • Increased SALT Limit: A major pain point has been addressed: the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap has been raised from $10,000 to $40,000. However, for those with MAGI over $500,000, this cap begins to drop back down.

Why Else Are Refunds Higher?

It isn't just new deductions. A few logistical factors are artificially inflating refunds this year:

  • Withholding Lags: Many of these tax cuts passed mid-year, but IRS withholding tables were not updated immediately. This means many employees had too much tax withheld from their paychecks in 2025, resulting in a larger refund now.
  • Inflation Adjustments: Brackets were adjusted significantly for cost-of-living increases, helping prevent "bracket creep."
  • Refundable Adoption Credit: Up to $5,000 of the Adoption Tax Credit is now refundable, putting cash in hand even if tax liability is zero.

A Note on Processing Times

The IRS is currently facing significant operational headwinds, having lost a quarter of its workforce since January 2025. Processing rates are down roughly 3%. If you haven't filed yet, do not let the headlines about backlogs deter you.

We are fully up-to-speed on every line item of the OBBBA. Our goal is to ensure you aren't leaving money on the table—whether it is an auto loan deduction you didn't know you qualified for or the new SALT limits. If you are ready to finalize your 2025 return, let's talk.

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