Italy's Expanding Tax Gap: Evasion Crisis Sparks New Policies

Italy faces a growing economic dilemma as recent findings reveal its tax evasion situation is more severe than previously believed. A government report reviewed by Reuters uncovers a surge in unpaid taxes and social contributions, reaching €102.5 billion ($119 billion) in 2022, up from €99 billion in 2021.

Image 2

This uptick challenges the narrative of previous steady improvements, signaling a reverse in progress noted since 2020. The issue is becoming a political flashpoint for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose government previously deemed strict crackdowns ineffective. Instead, measures were relaxed, such as raising the cash-payment limit from €1,000 to €5,000 and implementing tax amnesties for debts from 2023.

Critics argue these policies have emboldened tax evaders, potentially reversing a decade's worth of progress towards financial transparency. Deputy Economy Minister Maurizio Leo compared tax evasion to "terrorism" during a January 2024 parliamentary debate, signaling heightened efforts to monitor undeclared income online.

Image 1

Understanding the Data Shift

The updated statistics from ISTAT stem from a methodological overhaul in 2024, revealing deeper non-compliance than before. Between 2018 and 2022, the perceived reduction in evasion was only €5.9 billion, not the €26 billion previously reported.

These figures have significant implications for Italy's fiscal negotiations with the EU. With its debt-to-GDP ratio at 137%, every euro lost to evasion complicates Rome's budgetary challenges.

European Comparisons

Italy sets itself apart in Europe for its enduring "shadow economy." Italians' high cash usage contrasts with digital payment trends in Spain, France, and Germany, which have successfully curtailed their shadow economies post-pandemic.

Image 3

Meloni's administration argues that easing penalties will lead to increased compliance. However, a 2025 University of Bologna study shows voluntary programs recover only 35–40% of evaded taxes.

The Path Forward

The 2026 budget proposes a broad tax amnesty, waiving penalties and interest on overdue taxes—a strategy criticized by the European Commission as "fiscally risky." Beyond short-term tactics, Italy needs to address long-standing cultural and structural attitudes towards evasion, particularly in regions like Naples and Rome, where cash trades and underreporting thrive.

The €100-billion tax gap symbolizes more than a budget shortfall—it warns of regression in Italy's financial reforms, threatening investor confidence and EU fiscal stability. Without decisive action, Italy's shadow economy may cast a prolonged shadow over its economic future.

Share this article...

Want our best bookkeeping and business service tips and insights delivered to your inbox?

Sign up for our newsletter.

I confirm this is a service inquiry and not an advertising message or solicitation. By clicking “Submit”, I acknowledge and agree to the creation of an account and to the and .

Let us take your tax and accounting needs off your hands today.

Get in touch

27451 Tourney Road, Ste. 160
Valencia, California 91355
FAQs Frequently Asked Questions
Contact
Please fill out the form and our team will get back to you shortly The form was sent successfully